Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?
Probability
21¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 513h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $2.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 513.3h
- 14:35SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 513h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 22¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 FA Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2025-2026 FA Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Football Association (https://www.thefa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).