EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 19, 2026
Creator

Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of May 23?

Probability

92¢

1h

-1.7pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$626.27

Liquidity

$583.30

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 23, 2026”
Link
billboard.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (14.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
92¢
May 14, 2026, 00:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 17:42 UTC
updated 17:43:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T17-43Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 14.4¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 19, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 102.3h

    LOW
  • 17:43Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 92¢.

updated 17:43:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 17:43:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

13
Same eventBillboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of May 23
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 23, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

billboard

Reason

Question text contains "billboard" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of May 23?"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 17:43:00 GMT, YES is priced at 92% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.7pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$626.27 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $626.27. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $583.30. Spread between best bid and best ask: 14.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

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