SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 1, 2026
Creator

Will Dan Vladar win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?

Probability

5¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-36.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$50.10

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official NHL data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-20.0pp 7d
Apr 26, 2026, 23:00May 3, 2026, 22:54
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 37pp over 24h

    Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 10.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1393.1h

    LOW
  • 22:54Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-36.5pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.

Biggest hourly move: -40.5pp at 07:00 (to 6¢).

Show top 8 of 68 hourly moves
  • 22:00 · -39.5pp → 5¢
  • 21:00 · -40.0pp → 5¢
  • 19:00 · -40.0pp → 5¢
  • 17:00 · -40.0pp → 5¢
  • 10:00 · -39.5pp → 5¢
  • 07:00 · -40.5pp → 6¢
  • 2d ago · +40.0pp → 46¢
  • 3d ago · +40.0pp → 46¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventNHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy for the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

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