Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?
Probability
99¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$381.97
Liquidity
$3.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+52.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 32h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $3.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 3
Expiry in 32h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 32 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 31.9h
- 16:05SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 32h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:05PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 99¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 99¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 99¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 98¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 98¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 99¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.6pp
to 99¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 99¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 98¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 98¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 97¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.6pp
to 97¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 95¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 98¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 98¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.2pp
to 98¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 98¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.7pp
to 98¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.7pp
to 97¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 97¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 97¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.7pp
to 97¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.8pp
to 97¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.1pp
to 95¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.3pp
to 95¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.9pp
to 96¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 53.8pp
to 95¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 54.0pp
to 96¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of May 2, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of May 2, 2026”Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).