EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 2, 2026

Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of May 2?

Probability

98¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$353.03

Liquidity

$4.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

+27.6pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:55
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 150h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 150.1h

    LOW
  • 17:55Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 150h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.0pp over the last 24h, now 98¢.

Biggest hourly move: +68.2pp at 2d ago (to 98¢).

Show all 32 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · +6.0pp → 98¢
  • 15:00 · +3.1pp → 98¢
  • 14:00 · +5.9pp → 98¢
  • 12:00 · +5.7pp → 98¢
  • 11:00 · +5.7pp → 98¢
  • 09:00 · +8.2pp → 98¢
  • 08:00 · +6.7pp → 98¢
  • 06:00 · +16.3pp → 98¢
  • 05:00 · +16.3pp → 98¢
  • 03:00 · +15.7pp → 99¢
  • 02:00 · +15.2pp → 99¢
  • 00:00 · +16.2pp → 99¢
  • 23:00 · +14.2pp → 99¢
  • 21:00 · +13.4pp → 98¢
  • 20:00 · +14.7pp → 98¢
  • 18:00 · +13.6pp → 98¢
  • 1d ago · +12.6pp → 98¢
  • 1d ago · +13.6pp → 98¢
  • 1d ago · +12.6pp → 98¢
  • 1d ago · +12.9pp → 97¢
  • 1d ago · +12.0pp → 98¢
  • 1d ago · +15.2pp → 97¢
  • 1d ago · +20.5pp → 97¢
  • 2d ago · +19.8pp → 97¢
  • 2d ago · +20.4pp → 97¢
  • 2d ago · +24.4pp → 97¢
  • 2d ago · +26.9pp → 97¢
  • 2d ago · +30.9pp → 98¢
  • 2d ago · +68.2pp → 98¢
  • 2d ago · +54.9pp → 98¢
  • 2d ago · +25.5pp → 98¢
  • 2d ago · +27.9pp → 98¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventBillboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of May 2

Market Description

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 2, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 2, 2026”Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
billboard.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

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