Will Dua Lipa and Callum Turner get married by December 31?
Probability
79¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$269.21
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 79¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5977h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 25.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5977.1h
- 22:54SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5977h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 79¢.
Biggest hourly move: +9.0pp at 2d ago (to 78¢).
Show top 8 of 18 hourly moves
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · +8.5pp → 80¢
- 1d ago · +7.5pp → 79¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 78¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dua Lipa and Callum Turner's marriage takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements made within this market's timeframe will qualify. No announcements made after December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET will be considered, even if the marriage itself is announced to have taken place within the market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Dua Lipa and Callum Turner, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (25.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.