Will Elon Musk tweet “Doge” or “Dogecoin” before March 19, 2022?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 100.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

In Response to Trader Inquiry: Per market rules, only the clearly delineated words “doge”, “$DOGE” and “dogecoin” count for this market to resolve to “Yes.” Other and extraneous symbols which are not in the exact order of the words above do not suffice. Please note however that varying capitalizations within the aforementioned words suffice to resolve the market to “Yes”, as they are the same letters in the same order. This is a market on whether Elon Musk’s verified Twitter account (https://twitter.com/elonmusk) will publish a tweet specifically containing the words “doge”, “$DOGE”, or “dogecoin” on any date between February 17, 2022 and March 18, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive). If Elon Musk’s verified Twitter account publishes a tweet containing the words “doge”, “$DOGE”, or “dogecoin” on any date between February 17, 2022 and March 18, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk’s verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/elonmusk. If the URL of Elon Musk’s verified Twitter account changes before the resolution of this question, whichever URL the Twitter account moves to will be the valid resolution source for this market. Resolution of this market will be unaffected by the aforementioned tweet later being deleted. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a tweet containing one of the relevant terms is published regardless of the individual publishing the tweet on the account. For the purpose of this market’s resolution, an image containing one of the relevant terms WILL NOT result in a “Yes” resolution. For the purpose of this market’s resolution, a “quote tweet” where @elonmusk does not directly write the relevant terms within its own character limit, or a “retweet” containing the relevant terms will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Only a tweet containing one or more of the terms “doge”, “$DOGE”, or “dogecoin” within in its own character limit will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.

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