Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $630b and $640b on April 30?
Probability
15¢
1h
-0.2pp
24h
+2.7pp
24h Vol
$78.13
Liquidity
$1.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 15¢; -0.2pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 100h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 17.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 100.3h
- 19:40SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 100h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+3.2pp over the last 24h, now 15¢.
Biggest hourly move: +11.6pp at 11:00 (to 16¢).
Show all 27 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +9.1pp → 15¢
- 17:00 · +9.4pp → 15¢
- 15:00 · +8.7pp → 15¢
- 14:00 · +11.4pp → 16¢
- 12:00 · +10.0pp → 14¢
- 11:00 · +11.6pp → 16¢
- 09:00 · +8.9pp → 14¢
- 07:00 · +8.2pp → 15¢
- 03:00 · +6.6pp → 13¢
- 02:00 · +8.6pp → 15¢
- 00:00 · +10.5pp → 14¢
- 23:00 · +9.8pp → 13¢
- 21:00 · +9.9pp → 15¢
- 20:00 · +6.7pp → 12¢
- 1d ago · +6.9pp → 12¢
- 1d ago · +8.4pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · +9.4pp → 15¢
- 1d ago · +9.8pp → 15¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · +7.6pp → 15¢
- 1d ago · +6.5pp → 15¢
- 2d ago · +4.3pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · +3.9pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · +7.3pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · +4.9pp → 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- BloombergNews consensusextracted · mediumbloomberg.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (17.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.