Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600b on April 30?
Probability
3¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$109.69
Liquidity
$2.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 109.7h
- 10:19SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 110h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 4¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 9¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 4¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- BloombergNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).