Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by April 30?

1. 1

   Down 1pp over 24h

   Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $7.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

4. 4

   Past expiry — awaiting resolution

   Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Forsen breaks xQc's In-Game-Time of 14:27.035 in a Minecraft speedrun during a live stream by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve to “No” as soon as it becomes impossible for Forsen to complete a qualifying speedrun within this market’s timeframe. For the purpose of this market, “Minecraft speedrun” refers to a playthrough of Minecraft Java Edition version 1.16.1, using a random seed, starting from world creation and ending when the Ender Dragon is defeated. For the purpose of this market, “Stream” refers to a live video broadcast hosted by Forsen or where Forsen is present. Prerecorded videos, videos not intended for public release, or other non-live content will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be Forsen's Twitch channel (https://www.twitch.tv/forsen); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.