Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?
Probability
23¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$3.4K
Liquidity
$5.3K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $5.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 686.9h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 23¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 62¢+29.0
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?
Other · Vol $455.92
- 92¢+13.5
Will gas hit (High) $4.45 by May 31?
Other · Vol $185.04
- 40¢-44.5
Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31?
Other · Vol $993.65
- 54¢-13.5
Will gas hit (Low) $4.00 by May 31?
Other · Vol $318.11
- 7¢-7.0
Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?
Other · Vol $337.75
- 60¢+25.5
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?
Other · Vol $1.3K
- 84¢+16.0
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?
Other · Vol $711.10
- 97¢+4.5
Will gas hit (High) $4.40 by May 31?
Other · Vol $6.8K
- 99¢+5.2
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Other · Vol $668.9K
- 53¢+2.0
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?
Other · Vol $581.0K
- 100¢+30.3
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $436.8K
- 100¢-0.1
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Other · Vol $244.4K
- 18¢0.0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Other · Vol $221.6K
- 8¢+0.1
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Other · Vol $180.7K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.