Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?
Probability
7¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-18.1pp
24h Vol
$94.73
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 18pp over 24h
Now 7¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $1.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.1h
- 13:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:55PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.3pp
to 7¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.4pp
to 7¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 12¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 12¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 12¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 12¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.6pp
to 9¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 8¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 12¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.4pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.8pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.4pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.2pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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