UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 10, 2026
Creator

Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?

Probability

59¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released
Link
data.giss.nasa.gov
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+36.5pp 7d
1007550250
59¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:58 UTC
updated 07:58:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-58Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 59¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 6.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 10, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 544.0h

    LOW
  • 07:58Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 59¢.

Biggest hourly move: +39.0pp at May 15, 12:00 UTC (to 62¢).

Show top 8 of 66 hourly moves
  • May 16, 02:00 UTC · +36.5pp → 58¢
  • May 16, 00:00 UTC · +36.0pp → 57¢
  • May 15, 23:00 UTC · +36.0pp → 57¢
  • May 15, 21:00 UTC · +36.5pp → 57¢
  • May 15, 20:00 UTC · +37.0pp → 57¢
  • May 15, 18:00 UTC · +36.5pp → 57¢
  • May 15, 16:00 UTC · +36.0pp → 57¢
  • May 15, 12:00 UTC · +39.0pp → 62¢
updated 07:58:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:58:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

5
Same eventMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:58:40 GMT, YES is priced at 59% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +36.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 10, 2026 (2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket