SportsExpires Sep 10, 2026
Creator

Will Jagiellonia Bialystok qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?

Probability

75¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.7K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UEFA data
Link
uefa.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+25.0pp 7d
1007550250
75¢
Aug 13, 2026, 05:00 UTCAug 20, 2026, 04:09 UTC
updated 04:12:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-08-20T04-12Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 75¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official UEFA data

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Jagiellonia Bialystok qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Jagiellonia Bialystok qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 10, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 523.8h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 75¢.

Biggest hourly move: +28.0pp at 11:00 (to 77¢).

Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
  • 19:00 · +27.5pp → 77¢
  • 15:00 · +27.5pp → 77¢
  • 12:00 · +27.0pp → 77¢
  • 11:00 · +28.0pp → 77¢
  • Aug 19, 04:00 UTC · +27.0pp → 77¢
  • Aug 19, 03:00 UTC · +27.0pp → 77¢
  • Aug 19, 00:00 UTC · +27.0pp → 77¢
  • Aug 18, 19:00 UTC · +27.0pp → 77¢
updated 04:12:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 04:12:43 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventUEFA Europa League: Team to Qualify for League Play
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a spot in the League Phase of the 2026–27 UEFA Europa League (scheduled to start September 16, 2026) per the rules of UEFA. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the League Phase of the 2026–27 UEFA Europa League (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated in the qualifying rounds or play-off round), the associated market will resolve to "No". Any tiebreaker (extra time or penalty shoot-out within a qualifying tie) will not be considered separate from League Phase qualification. If the League Phase of the 2026–27 UEFA Europa League is cancelled, postponed to begin after September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the full 36-team League Phase field has not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the clinching team; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

europa league

Reason

UEFA Europa League — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Jagiellonia Bialystok qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?"?

As of Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:12:43 GMT, YES is priced at 75% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +25.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 10, 2026 (2026-09-10T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket