Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.6M and 6.7M in April?
Probability
17¢
1h
-2.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$188.49
Liquidity
$139.78
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (32.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 69h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 32.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 69 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (32.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 2, 08:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 69.4h
- 10:37SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 69h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 17¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted total number of job openings in the United States in April 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This market will resolve to the bracket containing the seasonally adjusted total number of job openings for the total nonfarm sector in April 2026, as reported in the monthly JOLTS report published by the BLS. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/jlt/), currently scheduled to be released on June 2, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly JOLTS report, which reports job openings in thousands of openings. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Rounding employed in the headline figure will not impact settlement, where a more precise figure is reported. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next JOLTS report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.6M and 6.7M in April?"?
As of Sat, 30 May 2026 10:37:33 GMT, YES is priced at 17% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -2.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 2, 2026 (2026-06-02T08:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$188.49 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $188.49. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $139.78. Spread between best bid and best ask: 32.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
4 wallets- 0xa5ef…2966105