Belated-Glue
0xad5353afe30c2da57709e2704ef3ccdcf67eef24
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$245.22
Realised
$1.6K
Win rate
91%
79 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31?
357 shares @ 19.7¢·now 67.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$240.97
$170.57
- YES
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by July 31?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 49.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$123.75
$122.75
- YES
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?
266 shares @ 32.1¢·now 36.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$95.64
$10.43
- YES
Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?
204 shares @ 3.5¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jan 18, 2027$70.38
$63.22
- YES
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
330 shares @ 20.1¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$67.55
$1.28
- YES
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Minnesota Vikings in 2026-27?
245 shares @ 1.3¢·now 25.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$61.23
$58.01
- YES
Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
283 shares @ 5.8¢·now 21.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$60.36
$44.02
- YES
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
327 shares @ 20.8¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$58.85
$-9.25
- NO
Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?
207 shares @ 11.3¢·now 25.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$51.74
$28.28
- YES
Will Chainlink dip to $4 by December 31, 2026?
233 shares @ 11.4¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$50.00
$23.56
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?$1.40Jul 28, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYTom Holland as Spider-Man?$4.51Jul 28, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$0.30Jul 28, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$3.13Jul 28, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$8.06Jul 28, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?$5.35Jul 28, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$4.58Jul 28, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?$11.20Jul 28, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?$3.76Jul 28, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill StepFun have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?$0.03Jul 28, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?$0.03Jul 28, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?$0.09Jul 28, 10:07 UTC
- MERGEWill Benjamin Ambrose be the MI-02 Democratic nominee?$23.81Jul 28, 10:05 UTC
- MERGEWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$13.94Jul 28, 10:05 UTC
- MERGEMoscow air traffic suspended by July 31?$40.05Jul 28, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?$5.92Jul 28, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by December 31?$9.12Jul 28, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?$1.94Jul 28, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?$2.66Jul 28, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by July 31?$6.18Jul 28, 10:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 79 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
79 closed markets, 91% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $10.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 09:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 10:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 79 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.