Will Kanye West perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 7.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person during the Super Bowl LXI halftime show currently scheduled for February 14, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying performances include but are not limited to singing and dancing. An appearance during the event where an individual does not perform as an incorporated part of the show will not alone qualify for a "Yes" resolution. "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched to music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LXI halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.