Will Lennar Q2 deliveries be above 17,500?
Probability
100¢
1h
+7.5pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Primarythe most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materialsTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+16.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +7.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 25h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 16.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 25 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Primarythe most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materialsTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Lennar Q2 deliveries be above 17,500? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Lennar Q2 deliveries be above 17,500? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 15, 15:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 25.1h
- 13:52SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 25h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+2.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.5pp at Jun 11, 19:00 UTC (to 94¢).
Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
- Jun 11, 19:00 UTC · +7.5pp → 94¢
- Jun 11, 10:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 90¢
- Jun 11, 07:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 90¢
- Jun 11, 06:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 90¢
- Jun 11, 04:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 90¢
- Jun 10, 20:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 90¢
- Jun 10, 19:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 90¢
- Jun 10, 16:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 90¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lennar's deliveries for the second fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Lennar's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Lennar Q2 deliveries be above 17,500?"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 13:52:55 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +7.5pp in the last hour, and +16.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 15, 2026 (2026-06-15T15:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $531.29. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 16.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
8 walletsNone.