SportsExpires Jun 2, 2026
Creator

Will Leonardo Balerdi be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Cup squad list?

Probability

50¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$4.19

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
fifa.com
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (97.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 01:00May 5, 2026, 00:44
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 97.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 671.3h

    LOW
  • 00:44Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.

Biggest hourly move: -25.0pp at 1d ago (to 49¢).

Show 5 hourly moves
  • 1d ago · -24.5pp → 50¢
  • 1d ago · -25.0pp → 49¢
  • 4d ago · +24.0pp → 74¢
  • 4d ago · +24.0pp → 74¢
  • 4d ago · +24.0pp → 74¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is announced as a member of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. Only full squad announcements will be considered. Prior cut lists or previous squad lists other than the officially announced squad lists will not be considered. If a player is officially announced as part of the squad but is replaced before the nation’s first game for any reason, the corresponding market will still resolve “Yes”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.