Will Lithuania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 486h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 486.4h
- 17:34SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 486h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.6pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.9pp at 4d ago (to 4¢).
Show all 15 hour-by-hour ticks
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · +3.7pp → 7¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 4¢
- 3d ago · -4.6pp → 4¢
- 3d ago · -3.7pp → 4¢
- 3d ago · -4.2pp → 4¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 4¢
- 4d ago · -3.7pp → 4¢
- 4d ago · -3.7pp → 4¢
- 4d ago · -4.2pp → 4¢
- 4d ago · -4.1pp → 4¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 4¢
- 4d ago · -4.6pp → 4¢
- 4d ago · -4.9pp → 4¢
- 4d ago · -4.7pp → 4¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 5 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumeurovision.tv
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.