What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Lord of the Flies" be the top US Netflix show this week?"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 15:05:51 GMT, YES is priced at 37% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 12, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$851.99 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $851.99. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $423.70.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-lord-of-the-flies-be-the-top-us-netflix-show-this-week-368 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-lord-of-the-flies-be-the-top-us-netflix-show-this-week-368/markdown.

EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 12, 2026

Creator

Will "Lord of the Flies" be the top US Netflix show this week?

Probability

37¢

-1.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$851.99

Liquidity

$423.70

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 12, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (60.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

May 5, 2026, 20:00May 6, 2026, 15:05

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T15-05Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
02
Spread cost
Wide spread — 60.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 12, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (60.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 128.9h
LOW
15:05Signal
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventWhat will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Category · Entertainment

Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?
Entertainment · Vol $188.1K
0¢-0.1

Market Description

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

10 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket