SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 1, 2026
Creator

Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli?

Probability

97¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+27.6pp

24h Vol

$147.20

Liquidity

$366.12

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (5.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+50.2pp 7d
1007550250
97¢
May 26, 2026, 02:00 UTCJun 2, 2026, 01:01 UTC
updated 03:11:24 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-03T03-11Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 28pp over 24h

    Now 97¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 5.2¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 92¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2156.8h

    LOW

Price movement

+27.6pp over the last 24h, now 97¢.

Biggest hourly move: +92.8pp at May 29, 23:00 UTC (to 99¢).

Show top 8 of 67 hourly moves
  • May 31, 00:00 UTC · +88.5pp → 99¢
  • May 30, 23:00 UTC · +88.1pp → 99¢
  • May 30, 08:00 UTC · +89.5pp → 99¢
  • May 30, 02:00 UTC · +88.0pp → 99¢
  • May 30, 00:00 UTC · +92.8pp → 99¢
  • May 29, 23:00 UTC · +92.8pp → 99¢
  • May 29, 01:00 UTC · +87.9pp → 99¢
  • May 28, 23:00 UTC · +88.0pp → 99¢
updated 03:11:24 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 03:11:24 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventSerie A: Next Napoli Manager
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the person appointed as the next permanent head coach of SSC Napoli. If no permanent manager is appointed by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SSC Napoli; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

napoli

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "napoli" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli?"?

As of Wed, 03 Jun 2026 03:11:24 GMT, YES is priced at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +27.6pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +50.2pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 1, 2026 (2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$147.20 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $366.12. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket