SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 11, 2026
Creator

Will Miami Heat receive the first overall pick at the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?

Probability

3¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-29.1pp

24h Vol

$1.7K

Liquidity

$314.95

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 11, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official NBA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (5.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 7, 2026, 18:00May 10, 2026, 19:36
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-10T19-36Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 29pp over 24h

    Now 3¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 4h.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 5.9¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 4.4h

    HIGH
  • 19:36Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 4h.

    LOW

Price movement

-29.1pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -45.9pp at 13:00 (to 1¢).

Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
  • 17:00 · -45.4pp → 1¢
  • 16:00 · -45.4pp → 1¢
  • 15:00 · -45.4pp → 1¢
  • 14:00 · -45.4pp → 1¢
  • 13:00 · -45.9pp → 1¢
  • 11:00 · -43.6pp → 5¢
  • 10:00 · -43.9pp → 6¢
  • 09:00 · -44.0pp → 6¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event2026 NBA Draft Lottery: 1st Pick
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve based on which team holds the draft rights to the first overall pick at the conclusion of the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery. If a listed team holds another franchise's draft pick via trade at the time of the lottery, and that traded pick results in the first overall selection, the holder of the draft rights is considered the winner, not the team whose record determined the lottery odds. If a traded pick is subject to protection (e.g., “top-5 protected”), the winner is determined by which team ultimately receives the first overall pick after all protections are applied. If the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is postponed, not completed, or no team has been announced as the recipient of the first overall pick by July 9, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nba

Reason

NBA — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Miami Heat receive the first overall pick at the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?"?

As of Sun, 10 May 2026 19:36:35 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -29.1pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$1.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $314.95. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.9¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

17 wallets
Open on Polymarket