CryptoExpires May 12, 2026
Creator

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11?

Probability

96¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$4.3K

Liquidity

$11.9K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 4, 2026, 05:00May 4, 2026, 23:18
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $11.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 172.7h

    LOW
  • 23:18Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 96¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor. For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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