EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 11, 2026
Creator

Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the second highest grossing movie of this weekend?

Probability

90¢

1h

+18.6pp

24h

+43.0pp

24h Vol

$3.7K

Liquidity

$968.23

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 11, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the film which grosses the second most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of May 8 - 10
Link
the-numbers.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 8, 2026, 15:00May 10, 2026, 22:59
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-10T23-00Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 43pp over 24h

    Now 90¢; +18.6pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 1h. Spread is extremely wide.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 19.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 1 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1.0h

    HIGH
  • 23:00Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 1h. Spread is extremely wide.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+43.0pp over the last 24h, now 90¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

13
Same eventSecond highest grossing movie this weekend (May 8)
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the second most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of May 8 - 10. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 8 - 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

movie

Reason

Question text contains "movie" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the second highest grossing movie of this weekend?"?

As of Sun, 10 May 2026 23:00:07 GMT, YES is priced at 90% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +43.0pp in the last 24 hours, +18.6pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$3.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $968.23. Spread between best bid and best ask: 19.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket