What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3?"?

As of Tue, 05 May 2026 04:29:23 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 5, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$20.9K traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $20.9K. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $10.5K.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-mrbeasts-video-get-between-68-and-70-million-views-on-day-3-919 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-mrbeasts-video-get-between-68-and-70-million-views-on-day-3-919/markdown.

CultureMulti-outcomeExpires May 5, 2026

Creator

Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3?

Probability

0¢

-0.3pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$20.9K

Liquidity

$10.5K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 5, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
@MrBeast
Link
youtube.com
Type
Social media post
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

May 4, 2026, 15:00May 5, 2026, 04:29

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

01
Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 2.0× turnover
$20.9k traded against $10.5k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
02
Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
03
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $10.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 5, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
@MrBeast
Link
youtube.com
Type
Social media post
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

04:29Signal
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
LOW
00:00Resolve
Market resolved 4h ago
HIGH

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same event# of views of MrBeast video day 3?

Category · Culture

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Culture · Vol $97.0K
2¢0.0

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 72 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 72 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "100 People Simulate Being Stranded In The Wilderness", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Zy5VLcEbZc. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket