Will Microsoft reach $450 in April?
Probability
48¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
+16.5pp
24h Vol
$62.50
Liquidity
$436.55
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 142.6h
- 05:22SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 143h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 36¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 52¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 52¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 54¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 52¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 53¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 50¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 50¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 50¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 39¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 38¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 37¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 37¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 32¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 61¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 61¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 58¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 60¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (36.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).