Will Microsoft reach $473 in April?
Probability
13¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$44.36
Liquidity
$487.13
Probability (last 7 days)
-20.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 13¢; -0.3pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 129h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 11.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 128.7h
- 19:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 129h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.9pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.
Biggest hourly move: -25.4pp at 2d ago (to 7¢).
Show all 28 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · -19.1pp → 13¢
- 17:00 · -19.6pp → 12¢
- 15:00 · -18.8pp → 13¢
- 14:00 · -18.4pp → 13¢
- 12:00 · -19.2pp → 12¢
- 10:00 · -14.0pp → 12¢
- 04:00 · -4.7pp → 14¢
- 22:00 · -7.3pp → 13¢
- 21:00 · -6.8pp → 13¢
- 1d ago · -6.2pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -4.9pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -16.7pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -6.1pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -17.6pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -5.8pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -5.3pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -6.6pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · -4.8pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -11.3pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -11.9pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -10.8pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -24.9pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -24.8pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -24.9pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -25.4pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -13.0pp → 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceAmbiguous wordingfinance.yahoo.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.