BusinessExpires May 1, 2026

Will Microsoft reach $473 in April?

Probability

13¢

1h

-0.3pp

24h

+3.5pp

24h Vol

$44.36

Liquidity

$487.13

Probability (last 7 days)

-20.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:17
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 3pp over 24h

    Now 13¢; -0.3pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 129h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 11.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 128.7h

    LOW
  • 19:17Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 129h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.9pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.

Biggest hourly move: -25.4pp at 2d ago (to 7¢).

Show all 28 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 19:00 · -19.1pp → 13¢
  • 17:00 · -19.6pp → 12¢
  • 15:00 · -18.8pp → 13¢
  • 14:00 · -18.4pp → 13¢
  • 12:00 · -19.2pp → 12¢
  • 10:00 · -14.0pp → 12¢
  • 04:00 · -4.7pp → 14¢
  • 22:00 · -7.3pp → 13¢
  • 21:00 · -6.8pp → 13¢
  • 1d ago · -6.2pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -4.9pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -16.7pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -6.1pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -17.6pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -5.5pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -5.8pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -5.3pp → 6¢
  • 1d ago · -6.6pp → 6¢
  • 2d ago · -4.8pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -4.5pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -11.3pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -11.9pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -10.8pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -24.9pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -24.8pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -24.9pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -25.4pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -13.0pp → 20¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceAmbiguous wording
finance.yahoo.com
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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