Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-nflx-close-between-80-and-90-week-june-19-2026 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-nflx-close-between-80-and-90-week-june-19-2026/markdown.

SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 19, 2026

Creator

Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19?

Probability

46¢

-0.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$906.20

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 19, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the official closing price for Netflix (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday)
Link
finance.yahoo.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (38.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

46¢

Jun 13, 2026, 00:00 UTCJun 13, 2026, 23:35 UTC

updated 23:35:24 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-13T23-35Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
02
Spread cost
Wide spread — 38.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 19, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the official closing price for Netflix (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday)
Link
finance.yahoo.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (38.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive

Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Jun 19, 20:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 140.4h
LOW
23:35Signal
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 46¢.

updated 23:35:24 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 23:35:24 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventNetflix (NFLX) closes week of Jun 15 at ___?

Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Netflix (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Netflix (NFLX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Why this category?

confidence: medium

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19?"?

As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 23:35:24 GMT, YES is priced at 46% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 19, 2026 (2026-06-19T20:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $906.20. Spread between best bid and best ask: 38.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket