Will Norway be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
9¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.1pp
24h Vol
$44.52
Liquidity
$7.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 493.8h
- 10:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 494h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 7¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 8¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 8¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 3 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 3 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).