Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?
Probability
19¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+1.3pp
24h Vol
$206.32
Liquidity
$460.37
Probability (last 7 days)
+14.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 110.8h
- 09:11SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 111h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 19¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 19¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.2pp
to 19¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.2pp
to 19¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.4pp
to 19¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.4pp
to 19¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 15¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 15¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 14¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 12¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 14¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.2pp
to 21¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 12¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 18¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 13¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.6pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.6pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.7pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.7pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.8pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.8pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).