Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12?

1. 1

   Up 2pp over 24h

   Now 51¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 3056h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 91.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Olivia Rodrigo officially releases a new album between market creation and June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.