SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 18, 2026
Creator

Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$75.3K

Liquidity

$149.7K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 18, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 12, 2026, 02:00 UTCMay 17, 2026, 18:34 UTC
updated 18:35:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-17T18-35Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 5h. UMA dispute is active.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 5 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5.4h

    HIGH
  • 18:35Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 5h. UMA dispute is active.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -49.1pp at May 14, 14:00 UTC (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
  • May 15, 03:00 UTC · -10.8pp → 0¢
  • May 15, 01:00 UTC · -10.8pp → 0¢
  • May 14, 21:00 UTC · -10.7pp → 0¢
  • May 14, 19:00 UTC · -11.1pp → 0¢
  • May 14, 18:00 UTC · -11.2pp → 0¢
  • May 14, 17:00 UTC · -11.1pp → 0¢
  • May 14, 16:00 UTC · -10.9pp → 1¢
  • May 14, 14:00 UTC · -49.1pp → 0¢
updated 18:35:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 18:35:14 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event2026 PGA Championship Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026. If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

pga championship

Reason

PGA Championship golf major — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship?"?

As of Sun, 17 May 2026 18:35:14 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$75.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $86.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $149.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket