Will Real Madrid place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season?
Probability
97¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.8pp
24h Vol
$319.73
Liquidity
$629.09
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 97¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 846h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $629 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 846.1h
- 17:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 846h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+3.8pp over the last 24h, now 97¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.8pp at 20:00 (to 92¢).
Show all 12 hour-by-hour ticks
- 20:00 · -5.8pp → 92¢
- 18:00 · -4.2pp → 93¢
- 1d ago · -4.2pp → 93¢
- 1d ago · -4.1pp → 93¢
- 1d ago · -3.3pp → 94¢
- 1d ago · -3.3pp → 94¢
- 1d ago · -3.3pp → 94¢
- 1d ago · -3.4pp → 94¢
- 1d ago · -3.4pp → 94¢
- 1d ago · -3.4pp → 94¢
- 1d ago · -3.4pp → 94¢
- 2d ago · -3.4pp → 94¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 2nd in the final standings of the 2025-2026 LaLiga season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve to the team officially recognized by La Liga as finishing in second place. If multiple teams are officially awarded second place, the market will resolve to the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish 2nd in the 2025-2026 LaLiga season (e.g. they are mathematically unable to achieve enough points), the market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-2026 LaLiga season is cancelled, postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no 2nd place team declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the LaLiga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.