Will Rhun ap Iorwerth be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?

1. 1

   Up 1pp over 24h

   Now 90¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 275h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $23.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.