Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026?
Probability
39¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
+22.4pp
24h Vol
$6.62
Liquidity
$88.20
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 22pp over 24h
Now 39¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 62.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.6h
- 15:23SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 39¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 39¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 40¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.7pp
to 39¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.6pp
to 39¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 39¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 40¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.4pp
to 39¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.7pp
to 39¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 16¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.6pp
to 19¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.7pp
to 19¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.8pp
to 19¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.7pp
to 19¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.8pp
to 19¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.8pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (62.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).