Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
9¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$80.00
Liquidity
$3.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 9¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 490h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 4.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 490.0h
- 13:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 490h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 11¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 8¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 12¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 12¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 12¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 12¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 12¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 8¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 8¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 8¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 8¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 8¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 12¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 5 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).