Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 1?
Probability
91¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$197.47
Liquidity
$665.85
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 39h.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $666 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 03Resolution proximity
Expiry in 39h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 39 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 39.0h
- 09:02SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 39h.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 91¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, asLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.