Will Shopify Rebellion Make the LCS 2026 Summer Grand Final?
Probability
38¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.70
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (73.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Spread cost
Wide spread — 73.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (73.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredIdentify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome.
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Shopify Rebellion Make the LCS 2026 Summer Grand Final? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Identify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Shopify Rebellion Make the LCS 2026 Summer Grand Final? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 38¢.
Biggest hourly move: +20.0pp at Aug 1, 06:00 UTC (to 38¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- Aug 1, 15:00 UTC · +19.5pp → 38¢
- Aug 1, 14:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 38¢
- Aug 1, 13:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 38¢
- Aug 1, 11:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 38¢
- Aug 1, 09:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 38¢
- Aug 1, 08:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 38¢
- Aug 1, 06:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 38¢
- Aug 1, 04:00 UTC · -12.5pp → 38¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified team reaches the Grand Final of the LCS 2026 Summer Split, currently scheduled for July 25, 2026 to October 4, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A team is considered to have "made the Grand Final" if it is one of the two teams that competes in the Grand Final match, regardless of the Grand Final's outcome. If this tournament is postponed after October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the Grand Final participants have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Riot Games.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
lcsReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lcs" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Shopify Rebellion Make the LCS 2026 Summer Grand Final?"?
As of Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:46:11 GMT, YES is priced at 38% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.70. Spread between best bid and best ask: 73.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.