SportsMulti-outcomeExpires —
Creator

Will SK Gaming Win the Shortest Game in LEC 2026 Summer Split?

Probability

7¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-17.4pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$891.02

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
—
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
lol.fandom.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (13.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
7¢
Jul 31, 2026, 23:00 UTCAug 4, 2026, 16:33 UTC
updated 16:33:52 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-08-04T16-33Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 17pp over 24h

    Now 7¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 13.8¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 12¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive
Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will SK Gaming Win the Shortest Game in LEC 2026 Summer Split? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will SK Gaming Win the Shortest Game in LEC 2026 Summer Split? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-17.4pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.

Biggest hourly move: -18.4pp at 16:00 (to 7¢).

Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
  • 16:00 · -18.4pp → 7¢
  • 14:00 · -8.0pp → 18¢
  • 12:00 · -13.0pp → 13¢
  • 11:00 · -13.0pp → 13¢
  • 10:00 · -13.0pp → 13¢
  • Aug 3, 13:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 25¢
  • Aug 3, 12:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 25¢
  • Aug 3, 11:00 UTC · -6.0pp → 25¢
updated 16:33:52 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 16:33:52 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhich Team Will Win the Shortest LEC Game?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the team that wins the single shortest game played during the 2026 LEC (League of Legends EMEA Championship) Summer Split regular season, running through August 30, 2026. Playoffs are excluded. "Shortest" is determined by the in-game duration of each completed game, as recorded on the official post-game result and logged by the resolution source (the clock running from game start to the destruction of the losing team's Nexus / game end). All completed games across the Summer Split count, including the regular season and playoff/bracket stage. Seeding games (matches played solely to determine seeding or draw position, rather than as part of the regular season or the main playoff bracket) do not count toward this market. A game that is remade or restarted before completion (e.g., due to a technical pause or bug) does not count; only a completed, officially recorded game counts. This market resolves to the team that won the game with the lowest recorded in-game duration across the qualifying games of the Summer Split. If the two shortest games share the identical recorded duration, the market resolves to the team that won the game that occurred earlier in the schedule. If the 2026 LEC Summer Split is cancelled, or is not completed such that final game-duration data is not available by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be Leaguepedia (https://lol.fandom.com/wiki/LEC/2026_Season/Summer_Season); a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lec

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lec" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will SK Gaming Win the Shortest Game in LEC 2026 Summer Split?"?

As of Tue, 04 Aug 2026 16:33:52 GMT, YES is priced at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -17.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $891.02. Spread between best bid and best ask: 13.8¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

2 wallets
Open on Polymarket