Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.7pp
24h Vol
$77.74
Liquidity
$6.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 5¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 5¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 5¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 5¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 5¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 5¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 5¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 4¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 4¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 4¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 4¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 4¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 4¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 4¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 1¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
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Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T?
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Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?
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Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T?
Science · Vol $0.00
- 11¢+3.2pp
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T?
Science · Vol $0.00
- 3¢0.0pp
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T?
Science · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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