Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Probability
43¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$121.96
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (75.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 75.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (75.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 102.6h
- 17:21SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 43¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 83¢0.0
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Other · Vol $27.18
- 73¢0.0
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Other · Vol $50.00
- 48¢0.0
Will Starmer say "Poverty" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 7¢0.0
Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Other · Vol $82.52
- 57¢0.0
Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Geopolitics · Vol $7.28
- 63¢0.0
Will Starmer say "Anti-Semitism" or "Anti-Semitic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Other · Vol $4.11
- 50¢0.0
Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Other · Vol $6.28
- 33¢0.0
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Russian" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Geopolitics · Vol $90.00
- 72¢+1.0
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01?
Other · Vol $959.0K
- 100¢+52.4
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-01?
Other · Vol $337.4K
- 100¢+45.5
Saint-Malo: Tereza Valentova vs Lilli Tagger
Other · Vol $298.0K
- 100¢+0.3
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Other · Vol $297.6K
- 95¢+45.0
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?
Other · Vol $296.3K
- 18¢-1.0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Other · Vol $275.7K
Market Description
Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.