Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting?
Probability
2¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$25.98
Liquidity
$1.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1948h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $1.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1947.5h
- 20:28SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1948h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -21.2pp at 15:00 (to 2¢).
Show all 36 hour-by-hour ticks
- 20:00 · -18.6pp → 2¢
- 19:00 · -16.2pp → 2¢
- 17:00 · -16.7pp → 2¢
- 15:00 · -21.2pp → 2¢
- 14:00 · -13.7pp → 2¢
- 12:00 · -13.2pp → 2¢
- 11:00 · -19.1pp → 2¢
- 09:00 · -19.1pp → 2¢
- 08:00 · -16.2pp → 2¢
- 06:00 · -15.7pp → 2¢
- 05:00 · -16.2pp → 2¢
- 03:00 · -13.6pp → 2¢
- 02:00 · -15.6pp → 2¢
- 00:00 · -14.1pp → 2¢
- 23:00 · -15.1pp → 2¢
- 21:00 · -13.6pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -14.6pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -14.1pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -14.6pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -12.7pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -14.7pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -14.5pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -9.5pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -11.2pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -11.2pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -10.9pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -12.4pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -11.4pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -8.4pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -10.5pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -11.4pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -14.2pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -17.4pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -12.1pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -15.2pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the base rate resulting from the Bank of Korea’s July monetary policy meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its July 16, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their July 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the change in the base rate resulting from the Bank of Korea’s July monetary policy meeting, relative to the level itLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.