OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 16, 2026

Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting?

Probability

1h

-0.3pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$25.98

Liquidity

$1.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

-12.7pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 20:28
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1948h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1947.5h

    LOW
  • 20:28Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 1948h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

Biggest hourly move: -21.2pp at 15:00 (to 2¢).

Show all 36 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 20:00 · -18.6pp → 2¢
  • 19:00 · -16.2pp → 2¢
  • 17:00 · -16.7pp → 2¢
  • 15:00 · -21.2pp → 2¢
  • 14:00 · -13.7pp → 2¢
  • 12:00 · -13.2pp → 2¢
  • 11:00 · -19.1pp → 2¢
  • 09:00 · -19.1pp → 2¢
  • 08:00 · -16.2pp → 2¢
  • 06:00 · -15.7pp → 2¢
  • 05:00 · -16.2pp → 2¢
  • 03:00 · -13.6pp → 2¢
  • 02:00 · -15.6pp → 2¢
  • 00:00 · -14.1pp → 2¢
  • 23:00 · -15.1pp → 2¢
  • 21:00 · -13.6pp → 2¢
  • 1d ago · -14.6pp → 2¢
  • 1d ago · -14.1pp → 2¢
  • 1d ago · -14.6pp → 2¢
  • 1d ago · -12.7pp → 2¢
  • 1d ago · -14.7pp → 2¢
  • 1d ago · -14.5pp → 2¢
  • 1d ago · -9.5pp → 2¢
  • 1d ago · -11.2pp → 2¢
  • 1d ago · -11.2pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -10.9pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -12.4pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -11.4pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -8.4pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -10.5pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -11.4pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -14.2pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -17.4pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -12.1pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -15.2pp → 3¢
  • 2d ago · -9.0pp → 7¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the change in the base rate resulting from the Bank of Korea’s July monetary policy meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its July 16, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their July 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the change in the base rate resulting from the Bank of Korea’s July monetary policy meeting, relative to the level it
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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