Will the DHS shutdown end between April 27-May 3 2026?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$11.76
Liquidity
$15.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-21.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2321.7h
- 06:16SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2322h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 16¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 16¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 16¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 16¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 17¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 17¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 17¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 17¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 16¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 16¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 16¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 16¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 17¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 17¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 17¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.9pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.1pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.2pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.7pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.8pp
to 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 0¢-1.0pp
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 16-19 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 10¢+6.5pp
Will the DHS shutdown end between May 11-17 2026?
Other · Vol $725.47
- 10¢0.0pp
Will the DHS shutdown end between May 25-31 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 4¢+1.0pp
Will the DHS shutdown end between June 8-14 2026?
Other · Vol $50.00
- 3¢-0.1pp
Will the DHS shutdown end between June 22-28 2026?
Other · Vol $70.00
- 3¢-0.3pp
Will the DHS shutdown end between July 6-12 2026?
Other · Vol $39.96
- 4¢-0.1pp
Will the DHS shutdown end between July 20-26 2026?
Other · Vol $30.00
- 13¢0.0pp
Will the DHS shutdown end after July 31 2026?
Other · Vol $10.00
- 2¢-1.5pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 1¢-2.1pp
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $433.7K
- 89¢+4.5pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $422.5K
- 48¢+3.0pp
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $398.7K
- 39¢+3.0pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Other · Vol $340.3K
- 17¢+1.0pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Other · Vol $253.2K
Market Description
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on FebruaryOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).