Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 27?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-8.0pp
24h Vol
$119.15
Liquidity
$14.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 10¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 51h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $14.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
Expiry in 51h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 51 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 50.6h
- 13:26SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 51h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:26PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 10¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 10¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 11¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 9¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 9¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 9¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 9¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 10¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 9¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 8¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 10¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 13¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 10¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specifieAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).