SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 1, 2026
Creator

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Probability

22¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$527.6K

Liquidity

$559.9K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jul 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source

Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.

Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-42.4pp 7d
1007550250
22¢
Jun 2, 2026, 01:00 UTCJun 9, 2026, 00:11 UTC
updated 00:13:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-09T00-13Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Identify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome.

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Identify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Identify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 527.8h

    LOW
  • 00:13Signal

    Resolution risk

    Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.

Biggest hourly move: -47.0pp at Jun 6, 14:00 UTC (to 21¢).

Show top 8 of 71 hourly moves
  • Jun 6, 14:00 UTC · -47.0pp → 21¢
  • Jun 6, 12:00 UTC · -42.1pp → 22¢
  • Jun 6, 10:00 UTC · -43.2pp → 21¢
  • Jun 6, 09:00 UTC · -42.9pp → 21¢
  • Jun 6, 08:00 UTC · -42.6pp → 21¢
  • Jun 6, 07:00 UTC · -43.0pp → 20¢
  • Jun 6, 05:00 UTC · -43.5pp → 20¢
  • Jun 6, 04:00 UTC · -44.0pp → 20¢
updated 00:13:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 00:13:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same event2026 NBA Champion
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of the NBA. The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nba

Reason

NBA — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?"?

As of Tue, 09 Jun 2026 00:13:01 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and -42.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 1, 2026 (2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$527.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $38.1M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $559.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket