SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Probability

7¢

1h

-0.2pp

24h

-4.7pp

24h Vol

$15.3K

Liquidity

$88.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-7.8pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:28
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 5pp over 24h

    Now 7¢; -0.2pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $15.3k traded against $88.4k of visible liquidity (0.17× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  3. 3

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved down 4.7pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  4. 4

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1564h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1564.5h

    LOW
  • 19:30Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 4.7pp in 24h with 0.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM
  • 19:30Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 1564h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-4.8pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.

Biggest hourly move: -6.1pp at 4d ago (to 9¢).

Show all 24 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 19:00 · -3.8pp → 7¢
  • 17:00 · -3.4pp → 7¢
  • 16:00 · -3.4pp → 7¢
  • 15:00 · -3.8pp → 7¢
  • 13:00 · -4.8pp → 6¢
  • 12:00 · -4.7pp → 7¢
  • 10:00 · -3.7pp → 7¢
  • 09:00 · -4.3pp → 6¢
  • 08:00 · -4.3pp → 6¢
  • 06:00 · -4.0pp → 7¢
  • 05:00 · -4.1pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · +3.2pp → 11¢
  • 2d ago · +3.8pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · +3.9pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · +3.5pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · +4.0pp → 12¢
  • 3d ago · +3.4pp → 11¢
  • 3d ago · +4.1pp → 11¢
  • 4d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
  • 4d ago · -5.0pp → 9¢
  • 4d ago · -5.4pp → 9¢
  • 4d ago · -6.0pp → 9¢
  • 4d ago · -6.1pp → 9¢
  • 4d ago · -5.9pp → 8¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL. The resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket