Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in April?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$50.36
Liquidity
$6.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 312.4h
- 23:36SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 312h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 7¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 7¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 7¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 7¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Other · Vol $101.98
- 5¢-0.1pp
Will the US add at least 250k jobs in April?
Other · Vol $181.36
- 75¢+2.0pp
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for April 2026, scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).