Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 8?
Probability
49¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$35.10
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (63.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 63.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (63.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 150.9h
- 17:06SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 49¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the White House Press Office calls a full lid by 6:30 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.