Will there be fewer than 300K daily COVID cases in India by May 20?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.0K
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 20, 2021
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 100.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 20, 2021
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://covid19.who.int/region/searo/country/in
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will there be fewer than 300K daily COVID cases in India by May 20? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will there be fewer than 300K daily COVID cases in India by May 20? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 06:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
This is a market on whether there will be any day from May 7 to May 20 with fewer than 300,000 daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in India. The resolution source for this market will be the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in India, as reported by the World Health Organization (https://covid19.who.int/region/searo/country/in). This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any date from May 7 to May 20 (inclusive), the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in India for that date was lower than 300,000. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single date from May 7 to May 20 (inclusive), where the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in India for that date was lower than 300,000. Specifically, at 8:00 PM ET each day from May 8 to May 21, 2021, the daily case total for all previous days will be checked (e.g. on May 15, case counts for all dates from May 7 to May 14 will be checked). If that count is under 300,000 at the time of any one of those checks, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If at the time of the final check, on May 21, 2021, 8:00 PM ET, the count for all previous dates never drops below 300,000, this market will resolve to “No”. Unusual Cases: - If the WHO website is down at the time of the final check, market resolution will be delayed until the website is restored, or if it is not restored within 48 hours, this market will resolve to 50-50. - If, at the time of a check, data is unavailable for any of the dates being checked, only dates for which there is data will be considered (e.g. if on the May 15 check, there is no data for the date of May 10, only data for the dates of May 7 to May 9 and May 11 to May 14 will be considered). If data is not available for any of the dates from May 7 to May 20 within 48 hours of the final check (by May 23, 2021, 8:00 PM ET), this market will resolve on data from dates for which data is available.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
covidReason
Question text contains "covid" — matched the Science keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will there be fewer than 300K daily COVID cases in India by May 20?"?
As of Sat, 06 Jun 2026 06:56:51 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 20, 2021 (2021-05-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://covid19.who.int/region/searo/country/in.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://covid19.who.int/region/searo/country/in. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $47.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 100.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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Top Holders
2 walletsNone.
- 0xc846…604212.3M
- 0x4751…69794.2K